Updating college football and ELO-FF predictions

So, we need to take a look at this coming week first, and then look back at how we did last week…

This week’s “both feet in” picks:

Wednesday) Ohio at MIAMI-OHIO (+5). Had to post this ASAP when I realized what was going down here. Miami had an eight-day break and stayed home; the Bobcats had just a six day break, and have to travel to play this game on a Wednesday night. We think they’ll still have a better than even chance of winning, but five’s too many points to lay under these conditions.

Thursday) WAKE FOREST (+17) at North Carolina State. NC State’s been “exposed” to a certain extent – we have this game at 11, not 17.

Saturday) North Carolina at DUKE (-10.5).  UNC just isn’t very good this year, and Larry Fedora’s team is slowly quitting on him, knowing he’s about to be replaced. We have Duke by at least 12, even without that factor we just mentioned.

Wisconsin at PENN STATE (-8). The Badgers are another team that looks deflated, and Penn State looks like they still have a lot to play for – which they do. McSorely will make sure they win handily – ten or 14 points, I suspect,

Texas at TEXAS TECH (+2). I had to stare at this one a long time – we have Tech winning outright, and so do a couple of other predictors. This is a very even matchup, and at Tech it’s hard to see the Longhorns favored.

UCLA at ARIZONA STATE (-12). We have the number at 19 points. UCLA simply isn’t any good yet, not good enough to stay close to AZST at the moment.

Oregon at UTAH (-3). I don’t know why one bad loss made everyone jump off the Utes’ bandwagon. We have this game at 13 points, not three! Go Utes!

NORTH TEXAS (-14.5) at Old Dominion. As we’ve pointed out before in this space, the Monarchs simply aren’t very good this year (unless they’re playing VaTech). UNT should win this going away.

Troy at GEORGIA SOUTHERN (+1). Another case where we stared for awhile. GSU has established themselves as the bully of the Sun Belt block this year, and should be favored at home against anyone from the conference after their shellacking of Appalachian State. We have them winning outright.

Games we were tempted by, but are staying away from…

Clemson at Boston College (+20) – our numbers say “17”. but our eyes say Clemson could open up a 28-0 lead in the first if they put their mind to it.

Northwestern at Iowa (-10) – every metric says it should be more, but Iowa simply doesn’t SCORE that much. Betting on them to go high is like betting on Nebraska, which would have been the next “tempting but no thanks” on this list.

USC (-5.5) at California. I don’t trust the Trojans as far as I can throw them.

SMU at U Conn (+19.5) And while that number seems too high to our ELO-FF computers, there’s absolutely NO way I trust the Huskies to cover ANY spread this season.

Same with Western Kentucky (+20) at FAU or UTSA (+7) with FIU. Maybe those lines are too high; I can’t bring myself to believe in them enough to call it.

As for Toledo (+4) at Northern Illinois tonight (Wed), we see a pick’em game, but there are too many question marks that make me stay away from this one altogether.

LAST WEEK…

We picked correct winners on 77.6% of games, slightly better than Vegas’ 76.8% for the week. But our ATS bets showed a propensity towards failure in Week 10, as our overall record against the Vegas number was 39-50-10 or 43.8%. We’re still above 50 for the season (at 52.2%), but not nearly as impressive as we once were.

At least our eight make-or-break picks went all right – we were 4-4 for the weekend. Here’s hoping for more success with our nine picks this week!

Here are our winners for Week 11:

ACC) Clemson, NC St, Syracuse, Duke, GT, Pitt, and Virginia.

Big Ten) Maryland, Michigan, OSU, PSU, Iowa, Nebraska, and Purdue.

Big Twelve) ISU, KState, OU, Texas Tech, and WVU.

Pac 12) Stanford, Wazzu, USC, Utah, and Arizona State.

SEC) Florida, Kentucky, Georgia, Missouri, Alabama, LSU, and A&M.

AAC) Cincy, UCF, Houston, Memphis, SMU, and Tulane.

C-USA) Marshall, MTSU, FAU, FIU, North Texas, LaTech, and UAB.

Independents) Notre Dame, Army, BYU.

Midweek MAC) Buffalo (-20; won 48-14), CMU, EMU, NIU, and Ohio.

MWC) Fresno, San Diego, Nevada, Air Force, and USU.

Sun Belt) App St, GA Southern, Arky St, and the two Louisianas.

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