First, let’s review last week’s predictions (we’re running about 80% so far this season)…
Clemson at Texas A&M – Vegas has this as a 12 point Clemson win; we only see a 7 point gap here. And it was almost a ZERO point gap, except Clemson held off the 2XP at the end to win 28-26. Good game, Jimbo!
Samford at Florida State – An FCS team at FSU? Well, we think this will be within 15 points: Samford’s a top-notch team, and Florida State didn’t look good Monday (which means a short week for them, too). We got to watch this game, and Samford deserved to win. The final score flattered the ‘Noles; they trailed until four minutes to go!
Duke at Northwestern – We see NW by five; the Vegas line is just three, and Sagarin says it’s 2.6 points. Everyone was wrong. Duke 21-7.
Georgia Tech at USF – Being at South Florida makes them the favorite for us; we predict USF by one. Vegas prefers Georgia Tech by three. And as has been the case more oft than not, we were right. USF 49-38.
North Carolina @ East Carolina – The Tar Heels just don’t look good. The ELO-FF agrees with Vegas – 16 points for UNC – but I’m thinking even ECU has a shot at home. Yeahhhh… 41-17. ECU. I think the Heels are lucky their next game was hurricaned out. That’s the only way they avoid a loss these days…
Penn State at Pitt – Intrastate rivals. 9 points in Penn State’s favor, but only because Pitt’s not as good as App State! And apparently it’s not close. 51-6…
Virginia at Indiana – Bottom feeders in Power Five conferences. Vegas says Indiana by seven; we think it’s by three. Four.
Michigan State @ Arizona State – I’d have said this would be a rout before the season, but ASU looked really good last week. We see MSU by five (Vegas makes it 6.5). We had the right idea. ASU came back to win, 16-13
Western Illinois at Illinois – Sagarin, understandably, has the big school by eight. We actually believe the FCS Western Illinois club is a one point favorite. Sagarin, however, bats pretty equal with us, and this one is in their favor. 34-14, Illini. (What a cool word to spell. “Illini”.)
Iowa State at Iowa – Given Iowa’s at home, we like the Hawkeyes by three. And until they blew out the lead with a late TD, that was exactly right: 6-3, Iowa.
Fresno State at Minnesota – we like the Mountain West Bulldogs over the Gophers by four. Vegas prefers Minnesota by two. A goal line stand gave Vegas the bragging rights and Minnesota the victory.
Colorado at Nebraska – We see the Huskers as just two point favorites; the Vegas line is 5.5 Good win by the Buffalos, 33-28.
Kansas at Western Michigan – Poor Jayhawk fans. CMU by four. Congratulations, Jayhawk fans! 31-7 winners on the road for the first time in NINE years!
Kansas State at Mississippi State – MSU by four. Vegas says twice that. The Bulldogs say twice THAT.
California at BYU (Brigham Young) – Big variety in predictions here. Vegas prefers BYU by three. The ELO-FF sees how good Cal was last week and prefers the Bears by five. (Sagarin says Cal by six.) We win. Cal 21-18.
USC at Stanford – Here’s a huge game in the Pac-12! We all say Stanford; ELO-FF prefers the Cardinal by six; Vegas says it’s by four. Sagarin likes five. We win again. Big Stanford win, 17-3.
Kentucky at Florida – Gators by 12. Whoops. Pride before a fall, for us and for Florida, as Gators lose to UK for the first time in 32 games.
Georgia at South Carolina – Bulldawgs by 8. (Closer than Vegas says for both SEC East games.) And, Vegas was right. SC was no match for the defending conference champions.
Cincinnati at Miami-Ohio – The numbers still like Miami by four, despite the Bearcats’ win over UCLA last week. But Cincinnati may be the real thing: 21-0, Bearcats.
Memphis at Navy – Memphis is the big fish in the AAC West this season. Tigers by 11. Memphis was sunk by a last minute fishhook cast from the Abey-Able hands of the Naval Academy, upsetting the Tigers 22-21.
Tulane at Nicholls – Can Nicholls win a second FBS game in a row? Tulane is only a six point favorite…Nope. 42-17/
Liberty at Army-West Point – Liberty upset their first FBS opponent last week; let’s see if they can defeat the USMA, a thirteen point favorite. It’s rare to see the Army fight AGAINST Liberty, but they defeated it 38-14.
Howard at Kent State – Kent State isn’t likely to be favored very often this season, but they’re four point favorites against the FCS Howard squad. AND….they won by FORTY!! Good job, Golden Flashes!
Eastern Washington at Northern Arizona – a big game in the Big Sky; EWU is a two-point favorite. Won by five.
San Diego at UC Davis – This is an interesting game. San Diego, big fish in the little Pioneer League pond, goes to UC Davis of the Big Sky, conquerors of FBS San Jose State. We see San Diego as three point favorites, proving their merit. Davis proved their worth, routing the playoff team from last fall, 54-21. UC Davis is positioning itself for a run at the FCS playoffs itself this year, as is my alma mater, their rival Sacramento State.
Southern Utah at Oregon State – How bad is OSU? Are they still so weak that FCS champion SUU can take them? We think not – OSU showed us something last week in Columbus, and we have them as three-point favorites. Did I say “three”? I meant “twenty-three”… no? Hoo-boy… well, they won 48-25. That’s the thing about sharing your warts by re-presenting your predictions like (um,..) nobody else does.
Here are some other FCS games of interest, rattled off without commentary…the winner will be in GREEN…
Albany at Rhode Island (-4)… Furman at Elon (-2)… Colgate at New Hampshire (-10)... Sacramento State at San Diego State (-17)… Montana State at South Dakota State (-16)… Chattanooga (in overtime!) at The Citadel (-3)… Hampton at Monmouth (-8)… Campbell at Georgetown (-2)… Gardner-Webb at North Carolina A&T (-29…but wouldn’t it be funny if after slaying two giants, A&T were to lose a game they were favored like this in?)… Villanova (-7) at Lehigh…. North Alabama at Alabama A&M (-4 … a good test for the new FCS school in North Alabama!)…and finally, Alabama State at Auburn, who’s favored by an incredible 68 points in our system! (The Sagarin numbers place the spread at 66.7, so we’re pretty close.) Auburn “only” won 63-9, so I suppose State can be happy they beat the spread…. for whatever that’s worth. (WHY do they play these games?)
So far, through week two, we’re 206 out of 248, for 83.1% overall. Las Vegas has 155/195, or 79.5%.