Let’s take a look at how the teams we’re following stack up right now…
From our ELO-Following Football ratings…
College Football Power Five Rankings:
1, Alabama (negative 2) 2. Ohio State (5) 3. Georgia (8) 4(tie). Penn State and Oklahoma (9). 6. Clemson (10). 7(tie). Auburn, Washington, Michigan (12). 10(tie). LSU, Stanford, Miami-FL (15).
College Football Group of Five Rankings:
1(tie). Central Florida and Boise State (19). 3. Fresno State (21). 4. Memphis (22). 5. Appalachian State (24). 6. Houston (25). 7(tie). South Florida, San Diego State, North Texas (27). 10(tie). Utah State and BYU (29).
College Football FCS ratings:
1, North Dakota State (23). 2. South Dakota State (24). 3. James Madison (28). 4(tie). Illinois State and Northern Iowa (33). 6. South Dakota (37). 7(tie) Weber State, Jacksonville State, Youngstown State (38). 10. Eastern Washington (39).
Historically Black College (HBC) ratings:
- North Carolina A&T (48). 2. Tennessee State (54). 3. Prairie View A&M (59). 4. Alcorn State (60). 5. Grambling State (61).
Here are the biggest upsets this year in the college football landscape, based on the ELO-FF point spreads. For perspective, consider this: when we predicted the game-by-game forecast for the seasons, we took it as given that any game with a point-spread of twenty or more was assumed to be a win, because we hadn’t had any examples of that ever happening. Yet in just four weeks, here are SEVEN counter-examples:
- Old Dominion (+40) def. Virginia Tech 49-35, week 4.
- Morgan State (+36) def. North Carolina A&T 16-13, week 4.
- Butler (+33) def. Youngstown State 23-21, week 1.
- BYU (+27) def. Wisconsin 24-21, week 3.
- Akron (+23) def. Northwestern 39-34, week 3.
- Cincinnati (+20) def. UCLA 26-17, week 1.
- (cheating) Army (+31) tied Oklahoma 31-31, week 4 (before losing in OT).
Australian Football ratings in 2018 (with the Grand Final to come late Friday night US time between Collingwood and West Coast – we favor WC by a goal) –
- Geelong (surprisingly!) – 76.9
- West Coast – 72.7
- Melbourne – 72.4
- Collingwood – 70.4
- Richmond – 68.6
- GWS – 66.3
- Essendon – 63.2
- Adelaide – 60.5
- Hawthorn – 59.3
- Sydney – 53.3
- No. Melbourne – 50.6
- Port Adelaide – 49.0
- Western Bulldogs – 39.7
- Brisbane Lions – 39.5
- St Kilda – 30.7
- Fremantle – 20.1
- Gold Coast – 6.9
- Carlton – 0.1
Finally, let’s take a gander at last week’s predictions. (The point spreads shown are Vegas’ – by definition, ours were higher in favor of our pick…)
VIRGINIA TECH (-28.5) at Old Dominion. We, like everyone else, were famously wrong about this. NEXT…
Wisconsin at IOWA (+3.5). Close, but no cigar. W won 21-17.
MINNESOTA (+2.5) at Maryland. O fer 3. Maryland won 42-13.
STANFORD (-1.5) at Oregon. Vegas would have paid off on this bet, although in our system we counted this as a loss: our ratings call OT games ties, and ignore any points scored in any OTs. Even though the Cardinal won, we call this a loss for us. 0-4.
WASHINGTON STATE (+3.5) at USC. We won this because USC only won by three, 39-36. A pyrrhic victory at best.
Ohio U at CINCINNATI (-7.5). Although the Bearcats very well could have won this one by more than 34-30, they also could have lost, too. As we did by taking the points.
Florida Atlantic at UCF (- 13.5). At last! A game that went the way we thought it would go! 56-36, and it was a bigger victory than the score showed.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+10) at Florida State. Well. somehow, the Seminoles found enough life to make the scoreboard move a bit, winning 37-19. We’re just 2-6 at this point.
COASTAL CAROLINA (+4) at UL-Lafayette. “But we (and Sagarin and…) have the Chanticleers winning by two.” And they won by two, 30-28.
UNLV at ARKANSAS STATE (-7.5). Typical of our week – the Red Wolves won by seven, 27-20. Which means we lost. FLIP.
We went just three for ten this week, but with this last game, the Stanford game, and the Iowa game, we missed our six of ten goal by a total of four points. FLIP! Our Week 5 predictions will come up when we put out the start scores for our fantasy leagues, over the next 48 hours. Have a great day!