It was a rough week last week for our predictions – technically (and that’s all that really matters, I suppose!), we only won three of ten predictions. That includes a game at 7.5 points Arky State won by just seven, a game Iowa had at 3.5 points where they lost late by four, and a game at 1.5 points that Stanford won by more than that, but because it was in OT we don’t count as a victory (so by Vegas’ rules we went 4 for 10). If we were in a whiny mood, we’d add that Cincy fell four points short, and we couldn’t include our prediction for Illinois State to upset Colorado State because as an FCS team, Illinois State’s point spread didn’t appear until Saturday.
However, our overall record against Vegas continues to excel – an even split of ninety games last week, and sitting at 54.5% wins for the season, minus the pushes. So we’ll stick our necks out again for ten more FBS games that we see the ELO-Following Football numbers breaking significantly in favor of one team over the other. As always, we remind you that we do NOT recommend putting any money down for real bets because of our opinions – our forecasts are worth precisely what you pay for them!
(Oh, and since you asked, here are the STARTING SCORES for this week’s games in both the SBAC and the Relegation League fantasy football games; just click anywhere on this bolded type and you’ll be whisked away to a magical land that looks a lot like the Following Football pages of our blog…)
Here we go!
Virginia at NORTH CAROLINA STATE (- 7). Our numbers show the Wolfpack by twelve, and we have great faith in former BSU Bronco Ryan Finley’s ability to rout the Cavaliers where the Broncos couldn’t last season…
Florida State at LOUISVILLE (+ 6). Our numbers have this dud of a game as dead even, emphasis on the word “dead”. We’d pick the Seminoles if we had to, but six points for a home underdog would be too much to resist.
OHIO STATE (+3.5) at Penn State. We kinda have to give a prediction on the game of the week, I suppose, although we’re not really confident here. Our numbers say the spread is only one point, and frankly OSU has been much more impressive overall than the Nittanies, so we’re picking the #notmetoo university to win outright.
PURDUE (- 3) at Nebraska. I suspect most of Cornhusker nation is betting this way too. We have Purdue by eight. Nebraska’s still gotta figure out who really wants to go through what it will take to win, and Purdue did that last year, and again last week. They’ll win comfortably.
Oregon at CALIFORNIA (+ 3).. My head doesn’t agree with this one, but my data says Cal-Berkeley wins this game outright. So does Sagarin, for that matter, and several other sources, so I’m going with the data. Bears win.
Utah at WASHINGTON STATE (+ 1). Another “believe the data” pick, but Utah didn’t have ANY offense last week, and Wazzu ALWAYS has offense. Last I checked, the idea was to score points int this game.
ARMY-WEST POINT (+8) at Buffalo. People got so enamored of the Bulls; 4-0 record that they’re forgetting what Army did to Oklahoma last weekend, going to OT against the fifth-ranked team in the land on their home field. Does anyone think the cadets are scared of Buffalo? We have them flat even with Buffalo – another overtime.
WESTERN MICHIGAN (- 1.5) at Miami of Ohio. Another home underdog. We have WMU winning by a point. Not a big discrepancy, I’ll admit, but I have more faith in them right now. Sorry, MU.
Toledo at FRESNO STATE (- 8). Another scary one, I’ll admit, because winning by a touchdown is not uncommon. But we see the Bulldogs as a TWO touchdown fave over the Rockets, and so do many others. Fresno’s our third ranked G5 team, behind UCF and their conference-mates Boise, and they can prove it with a big win here.
UL-Monroe at GEORGIA STATE (+8). Our final home dog. We have this game dead even.
BONUS PREDICTION: West Coast by a goal (six pts) v Collingwood at the MCG Saturday afternoon, Melbourne time. The biggest thing AFL fans need to remember is that the Eagles are undefeated this season when both Darling and Kennedy play, because they have two prodigious scorers surrounded by scrappers who will scoop up the leftovers. Also, this is not the team who played on the narrow old pitch at home only to get overawed by the size of the MCG field – Optus Stadium in Perth is of the exact same size, and they’re 2-0 on the MCG field this season. West Coast will win a close game.